There are some sectors of the real estate market, such as suburban residential housing, that are doing just fine throughout this crisis. However, other areas are facing true existential risk. The value of commercial real estate in big cities is extremely uncertain due to the combination of the virus itself, potential migration out of cities, and the fact that so many people can work from home.
The financier who pioneered the use of commercial mortgage-backed securities is railing against a proposed federal bailout for the market he created, in part because it would help deep-pocketed landlords such as Tom Barrack’s Colony Capital Inc. Ethan Penner, who rose to prominence at Nomura Securities in the 1990s, argues in an essay that it’s “wrong, plain and simple”
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VICKY SCHIFF Mosaic Real Estate Investors: Since beginning her investment career three decades ago, Vicky Schiff has achieved success throughout each of her ventures as a serial, real estate equity entrepreneur. Co-founding five firms since 1996, she currently serves as the co-founder, managing partner and COO of Mosaic Real Estate Investors.
As though the COVID crisis didn’t already have real estate investors on edge, combined with the tragic events in Minneapolis and subsequent protests, every investment decision is now being especially carefully scrutinized and second guessed. How long will protests last? What change will come as a result? What impacts will these two issues…
Lenders may be excused from feeling particularly stressed right now. In typical times they have often had to make difficult decisions but now they must also factor in an uncertain economy that is being driven by the virus.
For Ethan Penner, CEO and co-founder of Mosaic Real Estate Investors, each investment cycle has its own tempo. That knowledge can provide comfort in times of great upheaval. “For those of us who have been through a couple of [distressed cycles], you could figure where they are going to fall out,” Penner says. “They’re all different. But they also have a certain kind of market psychology that tends to resemble similar ones, and you could imagine how they’re going to play out.”
The coronavirus pandemic “will likely result in an unprecedented period of economic instability and recession that could last as long as three years,” according to Ethan Penner, co-founder and managing partner of Mosaic Real Estate Investors. Penner started originating commercial mortgages for securitization following the savings and loan bailout in the late 1980s, so he’s been through at least three economic cycles.